Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →95.8%
Chelsea
3.1%
Draw
1.1%
Morecambe
Expected Goals (xG)
4.50
Chelsea
vs
0.48
Morecambe
Markets
BTTS37.9%
Over 0.599.4%
Over 1.595.8%
Over 2.587.4%
Over 3.573.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
4-0
11.8%
5-0
10.6%
3-0
10.4%
2-0
7.0%
4-1
5.7%
5-1
5.1%
3-1
5.1%
2-1
3.4%
1-0
3.1%
1-1
1.4%
4-2
1.4%
5-2
1.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).