Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →47.1%
Almeria
20.7%
Draw
32.2%
Castellon
Expected Goals (xG)
2.11
Almeria
vs
1.73
Castellon
Markets
BTTS72.2%
Over 0.597.9%
Over 1.589.5%
Over 2.573.7%
Over 3.553.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
8.3%
1-1
7.8%
2-2
7.2%
1-2
6.8%
3-1
5.8%
3-2
5.0%
2-0
4.8%
1-0
4.6%
2-3
4.1%
1-3
3.9%
0-1
3.8%
3-0
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).