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AHT: 01

28 Feb 2026 · 18:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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18.3%
Nacional
23.6%
Draw
58.1%
Sp Braga

Expected Goals (xG)

0.98

Nacional

vs
1.91

Sp Braga

Markets

BTTS54.1%
Over 0.593.6%
Over 1.579.2%
Over 2.555.2%
Over 3.532.8%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
11.2%
0-2
10.1%
1-2
9.9%
0-1
9.8%
0-3
6.4%
0-0
6.4%
1-3
6.3%
2-1
5.1%
2-2
4.9%
1-0
4.7%
2-3
3.1%
0-4
3.1%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).