Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →6.7%
Luton
13.4%
Draw
79.9%
Arsenal
Expected Goals (xG)
0.87
Luton
vs
3.06
Arsenal
Markets
BTTS56.1%
Over 0.597.3%
Over 1.591.0%
Over 2.575.1%
Over 3.555.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-3
9.4%
0-2
9.2%
1-3
8.2%
1-2
8.0%
0-4
7.2%
1-4
6.2%
1-1
6.0%
0-1
5.3%
0-5
4.4%
1-5
3.8%
2-3
3.6%
2-2
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).