Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →55.0%
Estoril
20.4%
Draw
24.6%
Nacional
Expected Goals (xG)
2.06
Estoril
vs
1.31
Nacional
Markets
BTTS63.3%
Over 0.597.0%
Over 1.584.5%
Over 2.565.4%
Over 3.543.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
9.6%
1-1
8.9%
1-0
7.5%
2-0
7.3%
3-1
6.5%
2-2
6.3%
1-2
6.1%
3-0
5.0%
0-1
4.9%
3-2
4.3%
4-1
3.4%
0-0
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).