Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →54.2%
Chelsea
24.6%
Draw
21.2%
Bournemouth
Expected Goals (xG)
1.96
Chelsea
vs
1.17
Bournemouth
Markets
BTTS60.7%
Over 0.594.2%
Over 1.583.4%
Over 2.560.6%
Over 3.538.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.4%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.4%
1-0
7.1%
3-1
6.4%
1-2
5.9%
2-2
5.8%
0-0
5.8%
3-0
5.5%
3-2
3.8%
0-1
3.7%
4-1
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).