Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →46.9%
Almeria
20.4%
Draw
32.7%
Santander
Expected Goals (xG)
2.16
Almeria
vs
1.79
Santander
Markets
BTTS73.7%
Over 0.598.2%
Over 1.590.4%
Over 2.575.5%
Over 3.555.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
8.0%
1-1
7.4%
2-2
7.2%
1-2
6.7%
3-1
5.8%
3-2
5.2%
2-0
4.5%
2-3
4.3%
1-0
4.2%
1-3
4.0%
0-1
3.5%
3-0
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).