Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.7%
Casa Pia
23.3%
Draw
27.0%
Estrela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.66
Casa Pia
vs
1.15
Estrela
Markets
BTTS55.0%
Over 0.594.5%
Over 1.576.7%
Over 2.553.4%
Over 3.531.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.0%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
8.3%
0-1
7.4%
1-2
6.6%
2-2
5.5%
0-0
5.5%
3-1
5.3%
3-0
4.6%
0-2
4.0%
3-2
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).