Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →52.2%
Malaga
23.7%
Draw
24.0%
Sporting Gijón
Expected Goals (xG)
1.71
Malaga
vs
1.08
Sporting Gijón
Markets
BTTS53.8%
Over 0.593.9%
Over 1.576.5%
Over 2.552.6%
Over 3.530.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.3%
1-0
10.7%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
9.0%
0-1
6.8%
1-2
6.1%
0-0
6.1%
3-1
5.5%
2-2
5.2%
3-0
5.1%
0-2
3.6%
3-2
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).