Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →31.2%
Birmingham
26.5%
Draw
42.3%
Southampton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.32
Birmingham
vs
1.57
Southampton
Markets
BTTS59.0%
Over 0.593.5%
Over 1.579.4%
Over 2.555.2%
Over 3.532.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.5%
1-2
9.0%
0-1
7.7%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
6.8%
0-0
6.5%
1-0
6.4%
2-2
6.0%
2-0
4.8%
1-3
4.7%
0-3
3.6%
3-1
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).