Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →51.1%
Mainz
26.8%
Draw
22.2%
Werder Bremen
Expected Goals (xG)
1.59
Mainz
vs
0.97
Werder Bremen
Markets
BTTS50.1%
Over 0.591.4%
Over 1.573.2%
Over 2.547.0%
Over 3.525.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.7%
1-0
11.5%
2-0
9.8%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
8.6%
0-1
6.7%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
5.2%
3-1
5.0%
2-2
4.6%
0-2
3.6%
3-2
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).