Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →64.8%
Luton
20.7%
Draw
14.5%
Port Vale
Expected Goals (xG)
1.78
Luton
vs
0.68
Port Vale
Markets
BTTS40.2%
Over 0.592.4%
Over 1.569.7%
Over 2.544.7%
Over 3.523.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.0%
2-0
13.5%
1-1
9.5%
2-1
9.2%
3-0
8.1%
0-0
7.6%
0-1
6.6%
3-1
5.5%
4-0
3.6%
1-2
3.5%
2-2
3.1%
4-1
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).