Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →21.3%
Estrela
29.8%
Draw
48.9%
Famalicao
Expected Goals (xG)
0.81
Estrela
vs
1.37
Famalicao
Markets
BTTS42.3%
Over 0.587.7%
Over 1.564.9%
Over 2.537.1%
Over 3.517.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
14.5%
1-1
13.5%
0-0
12.3%
0-2
10.6%
1-2
8.6%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
5.1%
0-3
4.8%
1-3
3.9%
2-0
3.7%
2-2
3.5%
0-4
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).