Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →33.9%
Carlisle
25.6%
Draw
40.5%
Northampton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.12
Carlisle
vs
1.25
Northampton
Markets
BTTS47.0%
Over 0.591.7%
Over 1.567.4%
Over 2.542.2%
Over 3.521.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
12.8%
1-1
12.0%
1-0
11.5%
0-0
8.3%
1-2
8.2%
0-2
7.3%
2-1
7.3%
2-0
5.8%
2-2
4.6%
1-3
3.4%
0-3
3.1%
3-1
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).