Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →71.0%
Notts County
17.3%
Draw
11.7%
Newport County
Expected Goals (xG)
2.21
Notts County
vs
0.75
Newport County
Markets
BTTS46.8%
Over 0.595.2%
Over 1.579.2%
Over 2.557.0%
Over 3.534.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
12.6%
1-0
11.8%
2-1
9.5%
3-0
9.3%
1-1
8.2%
3-1
7.0%
4-0
5.1%
0-0
4.8%
0-1
4.3%
4-1
3.9%
2-2
3.6%
1-2
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).