Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →20.8%
Newcastle
27.1%
Draw
52.1%
Arsenal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.01
Newcastle
vs
1.71
Arsenal
Markets
BTTS53.7%
Over 0.591.9%
Over 1.577.1%
Over 2.551.2%
Over 3.529.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.0%
1-2
9.7%
0-1
9.7%
0-2
9.6%
0-0
8.1%
2-1
5.8%
1-3
5.5%
0-3
5.5%
1-0
5.1%
2-2
4.9%
2-0
3.4%
2-3
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).