Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →78.3%
St Pauli
14.5%
Draw
7.1%
Erzgebirge Aue
Expected Goals (xG)
2.76
St Pauli
vs
0.77
Erzgebirge Aue
Markets
BTTS50.8%
Over 0.596.5%
Over 1.587.3%
Over 2.568.4%
Over 3.546.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
11.2%
3-0
10.3%
2-1
8.6%
3-1
7.9%
1-0
7.5%
4-0
7.1%
1-1
6.8%
4-1
5.5%
5-0
3.9%
0-0
3.5%
2-2
3.3%
3-2
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).