Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →92.2%
Sp Lisbon
5.5%
Draw
2.3%
Arouca
Expected Goals (xG)
3.82
Sp Lisbon
vs
0.55
Arouca
Markets
BTTS41.2%
Over 0.598.8%
Over 1.593.1%
Over 2.581.0%
Over 3.563.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0
11.8%
4-0
11.3%
2-0
9.3%
5-0
8.6%
3-1
6.5%
4-1
6.2%
2-1
5.1%
1-0
5.0%
5-1
4.7%
1-1
2.5%
3-2
1.8%
4-2
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).