Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →36.7%
Cardiff
30.2%
Draw
33.1%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.21
Cardiff
vs
1.14
Luton
Markets
BTTS48.9%
Over 0.589.4%
Over 1.569.3%
Over 2.541.8%
Over 3.521.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.3%
0-0
10.6%
1-0
10.4%
0-1
9.7%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
7.0%
0-2
6.2%
2-2
4.6%
3-1
3.2%
1-3
2.9%
3-0
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).