Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →77.5%
Sp Braga
14.9%
Draw
7.6%
Casa Pia
Expected Goals (xG)
2.64
Sp Braga
vs
0.74
Casa Pia
Markets
BTTS48.7%
Over 0.596.2%
Over 1.585.4%
Over 2.565.5%
Over 3.543.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
11.9%
3-0
10.5%
2-1
8.8%
1-0
8.6%
3-1
7.7%
1-1
7.1%
4-0
6.9%
4-1
5.1%
0-0
3.8%
5-0
3.6%
2-2
3.2%
3-2
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).