Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.6%
Aston Villa
30.2%
Draw
21.2%
Nottingham Forest
Expected Goals (xG)
1.45
Aston Villa
vs
0.88
Nottingham Forest
Markets
BTTS46.5%
Over 0.588.5%
Over 1.569.3%
Over 2.541.1%
Over 3.520.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.2%
1-0
12.4%
0-0
11.5%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
6.9%
1-2
5.5%
3-0
4.9%
3-1
4.3%
2-2
4.0%
0-2
3.8%
3-2
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).