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22 Apr 2018

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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31.2%
Cagliari
25.9%
Draw
42.9%
Bologna

Expected Goals (xG)

1.16

Cagliari

vs
1.41

Bologna

Markets

BTTS51.6%
Over 0.592.5%
Over 1.572.4%
Over 2.547.4%
Over 3.525.7%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
12.3%
0-1
11.0%
1-0
9.1%
1-2
8.8%
0-2
7.6%
0-0
7.5%
2-1
7.3%
2-0
5.2%
2-2
5.1%
1-3
4.1%
0-3
3.6%
3-1
2.8%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).