Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →47.4%
Aston Villa
27.4%
Draw
25.3%
Leeds
Expected Goals (xG)
1.67
Aston Villa
vs
1.17
Leeds
Markets
BTTS57.6%
Over 0.592.6%
Over 1.579.2%
Over 2.554.0%
Over 3.531.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.0%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
8.2%
2-0
8.1%
0-0
7.4%
1-2
6.7%
2-2
5.6%
3-1
5.3%
0-1
5.3%
3-0
4.5%
0-2
4.0%
3-2
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).