Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →32.9%
Alverca
25.8%
Draw
41.3%
Moreirense
Expected Goals (xG)
1.16
Alverca
vs
1.34
Moreirense
Markets
BTTS50.1%
Over 0.592.3%
Over 1.570.7%
Over 2.545.6%
Over 3.524.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.2%
0-1
11.6%
1-0
10.1%
1-2
8.5%
0-0
7.7%
2-1
7.4%
0-2
7.4%
2-0
5.5%
2-2
5.0%
1-3
3.8%
0-3
3.3%
3-1
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).