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17 Jan 2026 · 18:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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32.9%
Alverca
25.8%
Draw
41.3%
Moreirense

Expected Goals (xG)

1.16

Alverca

vs
1.34

Moreirense

Markets

BTTS50.1%
Over 0.592.3%
Over 1.570.7%
Over 2.545.6%
Over 3.524.2%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
12.2%
0-1
11.6%
1-0
10.1%
1-2
8.5%
0-0
7.7%
2-1
7.4%
0-2
7.4%
2-0
5.5%
2-2
5.0%
1-3
3.8%
0-3
3.3%
3-1
2.9%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).