Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →43.5%
Spezia
30.5%
Draw
26.0%
Padova
Expected Goals (xG)
1.32
Spezia
vs
0.96
Padova
Markets
BTTS46.5%
Over 0.588.5%
Over 1.567.7%
Over 2.539.8%
Over 3.519.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.3%
1-0
12.2%
0-0
11.5%
2-0
8.9%
0-1
8.6%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
6.2%
0-2
4.7%
2-2
4.1%
3-0
3.9%
3-1
3.8%
1-3
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).