Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →38.9%
Vallecano
28.4%
Draw
32.7%
Sociedad
Expected Goals (xG)
1.27
Vallecano
vs
1.14
Sociedad
Markets
BTTS49.3%
Over 0.590.5%
Over 1.569.8%
Over 2.543.2%
Over 3.522.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.5%
1-0
11.0%
0-1
9.8%
0-0
9.5%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
7.2%
0-2
5.9%
2-2
4.7%
3-1
3.5%
3-0
3.1%
1-3
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).