Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.8%
Chelsea
25.9%
Draw
23.3%
Newcastle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.83
Chelsea
vs
1.19
Newcastle
Markets
BTTS59.8%
Over 0.593.6%
Over 1.581.8%
Over 2.558.0%
Over 3.535.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.1%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
8.2%
1-0
7.5%
0-0
6.4%
1-2
6.3%
3-1
5.9%
2-2
5.8%
3-0
5.0%
0-1
4.4%
3-2
3.5%
0-2
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).