Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →45.6%
Derby
28.2%
Draw
26.2%
Watford
Expected Goals (xG)
1.48
Derby
vs
1.06
Watford
Markets
BTTS51.6%
Over 0.591.1%
Over 1.573.1%
Over 2.546.6%
Over 3.525.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.4%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
9.1%
0-0
8.9%
2-0
8.6%
0-1
7.3%
1-2
6.6%
2-2
4.9%
3-1
4.5%
0-2
4.5%
3-0
4.2%
3-2
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).