Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →46.6%
Ayr
29.6%
Draw
23.8%
Morton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.52
Ayr
vs
1.03
Morton
Markets
BTTS52.3%
Over 0.590.3%
Over 1.574.3%
Over 2.547.0%
Over 3.525.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.2%
1-0
9.9%
0-0
9.7%
2-1
9.3%
2-0
9.0%
1-2
6.3%
0-1
6.1%
2-2
4.8%
3-1
4.7%
3-0
4.6%
0-2
4.2%
3-2
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).