Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.7%
Lincoln
25.8%
Draw
32.5%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.26
Lincoln
vs
1.07
Derby
Markets
BTTS45.8%
Over 0.591.3%
Over 1.566.4%
Over 2.541.0%
Over 3.520.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.4%
1-1
12.0%
0-1
11.6%
0-0
8.7%
2-1
8.2%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
7.0%
0-2
5.6%
2-2
4.4%
3-1
3.4%
3-0
3.2%
1-3
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).