Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.2%
Ath Madrid
24.8%
Draw
25.0%
Villarreal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.66
Ath Madrid
vs
1.10
Villarreal
Markets
BTTS54.5%
Over 0.593.5%
Over 1.576.6%
Over 2.552.3%
Over 3.530.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.8%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
8.7%
0-1
6.7%
0-0
6.5%
1-2
6.4%
3-1
5.3%
2-2
5.3%
3-0
4.8%
0-2
3.8%
3-2
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).