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28 Nov 2023 · 20:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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75.7%
Reading
14.0%
Draw
10.3%
Carlisle

Expected Goals (xG)

2.57

Reading

vs
0.82

Carlisle

Markets

BTTS51.0%
Over 0.597.2%
Over 1.584.6%
Over 2.565.8%
Over 3.543.9%

Most Likely Scorelines

2-0
11.1%
3-0
9.6%
1-0
9.3%
2-1
9.1%
3-1
7.8%
1-1
6.5%
4-0
6.1%
4-1
5.0%
2-2
3.7%
0-1
3.4%
3-2
3.2%
5-0
3.2%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).