Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →29.0%
Oxford
30.9%
Draw
40.1%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.00
Oxford
vs
1.22
Derby
Markets
BTTS45.8%
Over 0.588.1%
Over 1.566.3%
Over 2.538.4%
Over 3.518.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.4%
0-1
12.1%
0-0
11.9%
1-0
9.7%
1-2
8.1%
0-2
8.1%
2-1
6.6%
2-0
5.4%
2-2
4.1%
1-3
3.3%
0-3
3.3%
3-1
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).