Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →43.9%
Santander
27.4%
Draw
28.7%
Alaves
Expected Goals (xG)
1.32
Santander
vs
1.01
Alaves
Markets
BTTS46.5%
Over 0.590.4%
Over 1.567.6%
Over 2.541.3%
Over 3.520.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.9%
1-1
12.8%
0-1
9.9%
0-0
9.6%
2-1
8.6%
2-0
8.5%
1-2
6.6%
0-2
5.0%
2-2
4.3%
3-1
3.8%
3-0
3.7%
1-3
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).