Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →45.8%
Cartagena
29.7%
Draw
24.4%
Lugo
Expected Goals (xG)
1.20
Cartagena
vs
0.79
Lugo
Markets
BTTS38.1%
Over 0.586.5%
Over 1.559.1%
Over 2.532.2%
Over 3.514.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.5%
0-0
13.5%
1-1
12.8%
0-1
10.9%
2-0
9.8%
2-1
7.8%
1-2
5.1%
0-2
4.3%
3-0
4.0%
3-1
3.1%
2-2
3.1%
1-3
1.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).