Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →57.0%
Casa Pia
25.8%
Draw
17.2%
Boavista
Expected Goals (xG)
1.65
Casa Pia
vs
0.79
Boavista
Markets
BTTS44.9%
Over 0.590.6%
Over 1.570.7%
Over 2.544.0%
Over 3.522.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.7%
1-1
12.1%
2-0
11.8%
0-0
9.4%
2-1
9.4%
3-0
6.5%
0-1
6.2%
3-1
5.1%
1-2
4.5%
2-2
3.7%
0-2
2.7%
4-0
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).