Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →19.7%
Fleetwood Town
23.4%
Draw
56.9%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
0.78
Fleetwood Town
vs
1.57
Derby
Markets
BTTS42.1%
Over 0.591.5%
Over 1.567.1%
Over 2.541.8%
Over 3.521.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
15.9%
0-2
11.7%
1-1
10.7%
1-2
9.2%
0-0
8.5%
1-0
8.4%
0-3
6.1%
1-3
4.8%
2-1
4.6%
2-2
3.6%
2-0
2.9%
0-4
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).