Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →52.6%
Monza
29.1%
Draw
18.3%
Modena
Expected Goals (xG)
1.46
Monza
vs
0.76
Modena
Markets
BTTS42.0%
Over 0.587.9%
Over 1.566.2%
Over 2.538.2%
Over 3.518.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.7%
1-1
13.2%
0-0
12.1%
2-0
11.6%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
7.1%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
4.6%
3-1
4.3%
2-2
3.3%
0-2
3.1%
4-0
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).