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AHT: 00CSV

02 Apr 2016

Spezia

Away

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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66.8%
Cagliari
23.1%
Draw
10.0%
Spezia

Expected Goals (xG)

1.84

Cagliari

vs
0.58

Spezia

Markets

BTTS37.9%
Over 0.590.1%
Over 1.570.5%
Over 2.543.5%
Over 3.522.5%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
15.5%
2-0
15.1%
1-1
10.4%
0-0
9.9%
3-0
9.2%
2-1
8.7%
3-1
5.3%
4-0
4.2%
0-1
4.2%
1-2
2.7%
2-2
2.5%
4-1
2.5%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).