Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.6%
Villarreal
26.8%
Draw
31.6%
Ath Madrid
Expected Goals (xG)
1.43
Villarreal
vs
1.22
Ath Madrid
Markets
BTTS54.0%
Over 0.592.5%
Over 1.574.6%
Over 2.549.4%
Over 3.527.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.7%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
8.2%
0-0
7.5%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
7.3%
2-2
5.4%
0-2
5.2%
3-1
4.2%
3-0
3.5%
1-3
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).