Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →6.9%
Casa Pia
12.8%
Draw
80.3%
Sp Lisbon
Expected Goals (xG)
0.62
Casa Pia
vs
2.62
Sp Lisbon
Markets
BTTS42.7%
Over 0.596.4%
Over 1.583.2%
Over 2.562.9%
Over 3.540.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
13.4%
0-3
11.7%
0-1
10.5%
1-2
8.4%
0-4
7.7%
1-3
7.3%
1-1
6.1%
1-4
4.8%
0-5
4.0%
0-0
3.6%
1-0
2.7%
2-2
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).