Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →22.2%
Alcorcon
28.5%
Draw
49.3%
Malaga
Expected Goals (xG)
0.77
Alcorcon
vs
1.30
Malaga
Markets
BTTS38.9%
Over 0.587.5%
Over 1.561.2%
Over 2.534.3%
Over 3.515.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
16.5%
1-1
12.5%
0-0
12.5%
0-2
10.7%
1-0
9.8%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
4.9%
0-3
4.6%
2-0
3.7%
1-3
3.6%
2-2
3.2%
0-4
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).