Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.8%
Villarreal B
28.5%
Draw
20.8%
Lugo
Expected Goals (xG)
1.31
Villarreal B
vs
0.73
Lugo
Markets
BTTS37.6%
Over 0.587.1%
Over 1.560.3%
Over 2.533.4%
Over 3.515.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.2%
0-0
12.9%
1-1
12.3%
2-0
11.2%
0-1
9.6%
2-1
8.1%
3-0
4.9%
1-2
4.5%
3-1
3.6%
0-2
3.4%
2-2
3.0%
4-0
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).