Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →62.7%
Holstein Kiel
22.0%
Draw
15.3%
Erzgebirge Aue
Expected Goals (xG)
2.09
Holstein Kiel
vs
0.95
Erzgebirge Aue
Markets
BTTS54.6%
Over 0.594.3%
Over 1.581.6%
Over 2.558.5%
Over 3.536.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
10.5%
1-1
10.4%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.1%
3-0
7.3%
3-1
6.9%
0-0
5.7%
2-2
4.7%
1-2
4.5%
4-0
3.8%
0-1
3.6%
4-1
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).