Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →38.6%
Spal
33.3%
Draw
28.0%
Ascoli
Expected Goals (xG)
1.10
Spal
vs
0.90
Ascoli
Markets
BTTS40.8%
Over 0.585.1%
Over 1.560.6%
Over 2.532.2%
Over 3.514.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-0
14.9%
1-1
14.7%
1-0
13.6%
0-1
10.9%
2-0
8.2%
2-1
7.4%
1-2
6.0%
0-2
5.5%
2-2
3.3%
3-0
3.0%
3-1
2.7%
1-3
1.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).