Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →33.3%
Derby
28.6%
Draw
38.1%
Middlesbrough
Expected Goals (xG)
1.22
Derby
vs
1.32
Middlesbrough
Markets
BTTS52.5%
Over 0.591.2%
Over 1.572.9%
Over 2.546.6%
Over 3.525.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.6%
0-1
9.5%
0-0
8.8%
1-0
8.7%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
7.7%
0-2
6.9%
2-0
5.9%
2-2
5.1%
1-3
3.7%
3-1
3.1%
0-3
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).