Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →34.0%
Carlisle
26.9%
Draw
39.1%
Gillingham
Expected Goals (xG)
1.12
Carlisle
vs
1.23
Gillingham
Markets
BTTS47.1%
Over 0.591.0%
Over 1.567.5%
Over 2.541.7%
Over 3.521.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.6%
0-1
12.2%
1-0
11.2%
0-0
9.0%
1-2
8.1%
2-1
7.4%
0-2
7.2%
2-0
6.0%
2-2
4.5%
1-3
3.3%
0-3
2.9%
3-1
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).