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08 Feb 2025 · 12:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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37.7%
Swindon
25.1%
Draw
37.2%
Port Vale

Expected Goals (xG)

1.33

Swindon

vs
1.32

Port Vale

Markets

BTTS53.6%
Over 0.593.5%
Over 1.573.9%
Over 2.549.6%
Over 3.527.7%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
11.9%
1-0
9.8%
0-1
9.8%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
8.2%
0-0
6.5%
2-0
6.2%
0-2
6.1%
2-2
5.5%
3-1
3.7%
1-3
3.6%
3-0
2.8%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).