Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →80.0%
Benfica
14.3%
Draw
5.7%
Nacional
Expected Goals (xG)
2.60
Benfica
vs
0.59
Nacional
Markets
BTTS41.7%
Over 0.595.4%
Over 1.583.2%
Over 2.561.8%
Over 3.539.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
13.9%
3-0
12.1%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
8.2%
4-0
7.9%
3-1
7.1%
1-1
6.8%
4-1
4.6%
0-0
4.6%
5-0
4.1%
2-2
2.4%
5-1
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).