Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →26.3%
Casa Pia
27.1%
Draw
46.6%
Gil Vicente
Expected Goals (xG)
1.09
Casa Pia
vs
1.53
Gil Vicente
Markets
BTTS52.6%
Over 0.591.9%
Over 1.574.2%
Over 2.548.5%
Over 3.526.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.9%
0-1
10.4%
1-2
9.3%
0-2
8.5%
0-0
8.1%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
6.6%
2-2
5.0%
1-3
4.7%
0-3
4.3%
2-0
4.3%
2-3
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).